An Analysis of Fertility Determinants in Pakistan. The Role of Education and Intimate Partner Violence

Abstract

The manuscript consists of three chapters. The initial chapter stems from the need to understand the association between women's education and fertility in Pakistan. The Pakistan Demographic Health Survey (PDHS) 2017-2018 is the basis for the study in all three chapters. Pakistan is one of those nations that is suffering from the complications of higher fertility and lower levels of education and struggling to improve these demographic factors. In any country, education is considered the reason to control fertility levels. To shed some light on the importance of this fact, educational attainment and the total children ever born have been considered to examine the relationship of education with fertility for women. Due to the nature of the response variable, children ever born, which is a count variable, Poisson regression was used. The results provide evidence that women with secondary and higher education have a negative and significant association with fertility and thus support the hypothesis that educated women have lower fertility. Women with secondary and higher education have fewer children compared to women with no education, while female education at the primary level did not significantly affect fertility in the research. Furthermore, the age of first cohabitation, age at first birth, and wealth index were revealed to be significant determinants of fertility. The focal point of the second chapter revolves around the use of Pakistan's Article 25(A). This research gives new evidence on the effect of female education on fertility in Pakistan, focusing on changes in secondary and primary school law as the source of exogenous variations in education. This policy change affected all individuals born on or after May 2014, February 2013, June 2013, and December 2012 in Punjab, Sindh, Balochistan, and the Islamabad region, respectively. Applying the local randomization technique, we create a natural framework for analyzing a regression discontinuity design with a discrete running variable and few mass points. Our findings show that there is a discontinuity in the outcome variable (total number of children ever born and women's age at first birth) at the cutoff point and indicate a clear jump in the observed values for all regions. As a result of national-level reforms, increases in education do not reduce the number of children born per woman in Punjab and Balochistan, and the adoption of compulsory primary and secondary schools does not increase educational attainment while fertility decreases due to family planning practices in Sindh and Islamabad. The final chapter aims to extend the literature about how intimate partner violence increases the risk of high fertility behavior in Pakistan. Intimate partner violence (IPV), a devastating consequence of gender inequality in society, is the most common type of IPV, with intimate partners perpetrating the majority of abuse and causing serious health repercussions for women. Women who have experienced abuse are also at a greater risk of reproductive health effects, inconsistent and poor levels of contraceptive usage, unwanted pregnancies, and unfavorable pregnancy outcomes. Pakistan remains with a high fertility rate, despite several programs and policies aimed at attaining significant fertility reductions in the region. This research examines whether women's exposure to domestic violence is a contributing factor to increased fertility in Pakistan. A weighted sample of 3,416 currently married women in Pakistan was analyzed. Our dependent variable is the total number of children ever born, which is the proxy of fertility, and the main explanatory variable is intimate partner violence (physical, emotional, and sexual). An instrumental variable Poisson generalized method of moments estimator was used in estimating the model. Our findings support the hypothesis that women who have experienced domestic violence have greater fertility rates compared to those who have not.